6. The Three Fed Chairs
Mr. Powell had grown the Fed’s balance sheet (printed money) from $4.4 trillion up to $8.9 trillion, more than doubling its size! Money (M2) in the system had gone up to $21.9 trillion, an increase of over 57%, the greatest increases in both in our history.
5. Labor Productivity Surges
Labor Productivity is a complicated formula, but for our purposes, it is simply output over cost. The higher, the better! Since 1950, labor productivity has averaged 1.5%. From 1994 through the first quarter of 2000, labor productivity was at a record 3.5%.
4. The Residue of Ben Bernanke
Ben Bernanke's policy of printing money while maintaining artificially low interest rates was and still is unsustainable. It has directly contributed to recent bank insolvencies. The price of money is determined by the interest rate. In an open, unmanipulated market, it will fluctuate based on risk (higher risk leads to higher rates) and duration (the length of the loan).
3. Congress Marches Toward a September Government Shutdown
This situation will likely involve posturing and window dressing that will dominate the press in an election year, potentially diverting attention from a more significant economic event likely to occur in September.
2. Wage Increases Unsupported by Productivity
Today, the song "Rich Men North of Richmond" underscores the national feeling of a great loss of hope and opportunity – the two pillars that have fueled the free market system in the United States since our country's inception.
1. Opposed to the Consensus
When the M2 money supply shows a contraction of over 4% for the fourth consecutive month (for the first time this century), after experiencing increases of over 27% in '21 (for the first time in our history), what should we think?